Shipping Trends for September 2024: Latest Freight Market Cheat Sheet

Welcome to the Freight Market Cheat Sheet.

In this short guide, supply chain professionals (like you) can get a quick update on what’s happening in North American freight markets this month.

Get insights driven by market experts and proprietary network data.

Freight Market Overview

With back-to-school in the rearview, the summer shipping season has come to an end.

We may be in a new truckload market cycle (according to our Coyote Curve forecast), but we still have yet to see a huge upswing in freight market activity.

Let’s look at a few trends before diving into rates and modes.

Labor Day recap: a muted end to summer shipping

The week leading into the Labor Day weekend, which often results in increased spot market activity as shippers prepare for the holiday, came and went without much fanfare.

We saw some seasonal tightening and incremental spot market activity, netting a roughly 2% rate increase. This was in-line with our expectations given overall market conditions, but represents a slight downwards movement compared to typical seasonality.

Carrier contract acceptance remains at historically high levels, so shippers have been able to successfully reduce their spot market exposure compared to periods with higher freight demand.

But we’re still tracking ahead of earlier this year

Even though the spot market gave back its holiday gains after the 4th of July, and didn’t see a huge spike around Labor Day, rates are still running ahead of the first half average by about 5%-7%.

Though we have yet to see a sustained surge higher, we can still be confident that we’re past the deflationary bottom — spot or contract, there is not likely any lower that rates can go.

Produce season is moving North

As we close out the summer, most produce-related seasonal impacts have tapered off in the southern states, but are moving north into the Midwest, Northwest and Northeast.

Up next: Peak Season

Though summer didn’t bring a massive shift in the supply/demand balance, there’s still a few (potentially) capacity-crunching events to come. In September and October, retailers will start to build up inventories ahead of holiday shipping. We’ll see if continued capacity attrition results in a tighter peak season (at least, tighter than 2023).

Full Truckload Trends: September 2024

In August, we saw overall truckload rates remain flat month-over-month (M/M).

Looking at equipment types, dry van (-0.1%) and open deck (-3.1%) went down a notch, and refrigerated moved up 0.9%. In short, hardly any movement from July.

Looking at year-over-year (Y/Y) comparisons, however, we continued our venture into inflationary territory in total (8.0%), dry van (9.5%), reefer (4.4), and flatbed (7.6%).

Note on the data: all truckload rate figures are derived from Coyote’s proprietary transactional data. With thousands of daily shipments, it is one of the largest centralized freight marketplaces in North America.

Want the updated truckload market forecast?

We published the latest Q3 Coyote Curve. Check out our proprietary index for more in-depth freight market insights.

LTL Trends: September 2024

Recent merger & acquisition activity in the LTL market

Knight-Swift
Knight-Swift, traditionally a truckload-focused carrier, continues to build out their national LTL footprint. This started with AAA Cooper, who was primarily a Southeast carrier, followed by Midwest Motor Express. Most recently, Knight-Swift acquired Dependable Highway Express, giving them California, Arizona, and Nevada coverage. The companies will operate as two entities for the present, but are targeting October to merge into the same Standard Carrier Alpha Code (SCAC).

Furthermore, Knight-Swift has been opening terminals acquired in the Yellow bankruptcy to further expand their coverage. To complete their national coverage, they need to acquire a Northeast-focused carrier.

Frontline Freight
Frontline Freight has finished rebranding to STG Logistics, who acquired them last year. In addition to the rebrand, they are doing an overhaul of their transit times to more accurately represent the consolidation model (their linehauls primarily move on the rail via intermodal).

DC Logistics
DC Logistics has purchased GLS US Freight. The company will rebrand as Mountain Valley Express, serving as a west coast regional LTL provider.

Changes coming to NMFC classifications in 2025

The NMFTA is in the process of making changes to the NMFC classification system. Changes will not go into effect until May of next year, but it is going to impact many shippers.

As of now, there are over 5,000 NMFC item numbers projected to change to a density-based scale, ranging from class 50 to 400.

Here’s a timeline of the changes:

January 2025: Docket 2025-1, a list of NMFC items that are potentially going to change, will be available for review. The NMFTA has provided a preliminary list already, but it is subject to change pending feedback and meetings.
March 2025: The NMFTA will hold a public meeting to discuss the changes.
May 2025: NMFC changes will go into effect.

To stay updated, visit the 2025 NMFC Changes page on the NMFTA site.

Intermodal Trends: September 2024

Though capacity and rates remained consistent, the threat of a Canadian rail strike looms over the North American intermodal market.

Canadian railroad updates

All Canadian rail traffic shut down on Thursday, August 22nd, for the first time in post-industrial Canadian history. Regular operations resumed between one and four days later (depending on the railroad) after the government intervened to compel binding arbitration, however, things are not yet back to ‘business as usual’.

It will several weeks for the Canadian railroads to re-balance their networks and, simultaneously, the Teamsters Canada Rail Conference (TCRC) union is disputing the legality of the recent back-to-work orders.

U.S. East & Gulf coast port labor updates

The collective bargaining agreement between the United States Maritime Alliance (USMX) port employers and the ~25,000 port workers represented by the International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) is set to expire on September 30th, 2024, and there is a significant risk of a U.S. East/Gulf coast strike beginning October 1^st.

The USMX oversees ports stretching from Maine to Texas; previous contract negotiations between the USMX and the ILA were relatively straightforward compared to their PMA & ILWU counterparts on the U.S. West coast, but this year is shaping up differently insofar.

The ILA has consistently said that their members will not report to work on October 1^st without a new contract, and they have so far resisted calls for federal mediation.

Southern California updates

At present, a number of global factors have contributed to an increased demand for intermodal transportation out of Los Angeles. As a result, we’ve seen an increase is intermodal rates out of Los Angeles, and the Union Pacific recently enacted formal Peak Season surcharges out of L.A. for the first time since 2022.

All of the following factors have contributed in some way to increased port activity on the U.S. West coast (specifically Los Angeles):

Relatively low water levels in the Panama Canal have increased traffic East Asian imports through Los Angeles instead of U.S. East coast ports
Yemen-based Houthi strikes against ships entering the Red Sea have caused some South Asian manufacturers in India & Pakistan to ship their freight to the U.S. West coast instead
The USMX / ILA contract uncertainty on the East coast is causing some customers and shipping lines to divert traffic to the West coast
The recent railroad labor unrest in Canada motivated some customers to divert traffic away from Vancouver

Volume steady, service and capacity strong

Through late August, overall North American intermodal volume is running 17% ahead of the same time period in 2023. It is the highest weekly level for the container volumes since the week ending May 15, 2021. Still, capacity remains plentiful in most regions outside of Los Angeles.

Regarding Los Angeles, shippers should provide an additional 24-48 hours of lead time when possible.

Cross-Border Mexico Trends: September 2024

After rates ticked up in June, July and August have been essentially flat (-0.5% overall). Northbound rates dipped -2.4% M/M, while southbound rates decreased -0.6%.

From drought to flooding to normalcy

After experiencing a historic drought, the seasonal rainy season finally began, wreaking havoc across Mexico in the form of flooding, road closures and damages to trucks and warehouses. Heading into September, we have reached the end of rainy season.

Transit times have returned closer to normal with less weather induced delays and accidents. Travels conditions have also improved.

Next phase of CCP regulation is live

Complemento Carta Porte (CCP) 3.1 went live on July 17th.

This regulation creates additional steps for shippers and transportation providers, and covers both domestic Mexico and cross border shipments. All carriers, shippers and brokers must be in compliance with the additional regulations of version 3.1.

Coyote, of course, is in compliance. Have questions? Check out our FAQ for the Complemento Carta Porte

Cross-Border Canada Trends: September 2024

After remaining virtually flat in July, August saw truckload rates start to climb 5.6% M/M in Canada.

Though northbound rates were down -2.8%, southbound increased 6.6%. Furthermore, Y/Y rates ticked back into inflationary territory (when looking at combined Canada pricing) to 4.5%.

This was due to disruptions caused by the railroad labor disputes. In the weeks leading up to the strike date of August 22^nd, many shippers proactively shifted urgent rail shipments to truck, putting a major strain on capacity throughout the country. Trucking companies faced challenges in meeting the quickly increased demand, leading to increased shipping costs and longer delivery times.

As covered in the intermodal section, the Canadian government stepped in and ordered the rail workers back to work; by Monday, August 26^th, trains were rolling again. The unions are challenging the government intervention, so the situation should not be considered fully resolved.

Although the actual strike was short, the effect on supply chains was meaningful. It will likely take until mid-September for the truckload market to stabilize again.

Coyote News

Stay up-to-date with Coyote Logistics.

Coyote named a top 100 3PL by Inbound Logistics
UPS, Coyote’s parent company, announced the sale of Coyote to RXO

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